Selasa, 10 Mei 2011

Rising Import and Beef Prices, Jim Rogers on Commodity Bubble, and Graph on Who Pays for EuroZone Bailout

Not too much news today, some on rising prices.  First is a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that import prices have risen 2.2% in April.  From EPJ:
Import prices rose 2.2 percent in April following a 2.6 percent advance in March, the first time import prices increased by more than two percent in consecutive months since June 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The price index for overall imports recorded an increase each month since October and rose 11.1 percent over the past year.
Wendy's/Arby's Group Inc.'s quarterly profit fell short of expectations; guess what rising prices it blames?  Per Reuters:
The third-biggest U.S. fast-food restaurant operator depends on fresh beef at Wendy's and roast beef at Arby's. It now expects beef costs to rise 20 percent this year, compared with its previous call for an increase of 10 to 15 percent, Chief Financial Officer Stephen Hare said on a conference call with analysts on Tuesday.
It also sees overall commodity costs -- including beef, bacon, fryer oil, dairy and distribution costs -- rising 5 percent to 6 percent, compared with a previous estimate of 2 percent to 3 percent.
Wendy's/Arby's plans to use selective price increases and the promotion of more profitable items to help offset those higher costs, Hare said.
Here is Jim Rogers weighing in on a supposed commodity bubble:
I hardly see how silver could be a bubble when, even at its top, it's still below it's all-time high. That's not much of a bubble. A bubble is when things are screaming up every day and they go to new highs, two to three times their old highs. We'll have a bubble, we'll have a bubble in commodities, we're not there yet.
And for another sign of brewing inflation, here is yet another report on the booming tech sector in Silicon Valley.  From WSJ:
SAN FRANCISCO—California's economic recovery is kicking into higher gear, with unexpectedly strong job growth propelled by a pickup in technology hiring, as the nation's biggest and richest state starts to beat back its formidable budget deficit.
The state added 90,600 jobs in the first quarter, more than the increase of 82,600 for all of 2010, according to seasonally adjusted data from its Employment Development Department that exceeded most analysts' estimates. That put California, a poster state for American economies hobbled by the housing bust, above the national average, with a year-over-year increase in employment of 1.2% in the first quarter, compared with 1% nationwide.
And here is the graph from The Economist (via The Big Picture) showing who is paying for the EuroZone bailout:

The U.S. has pledged about $72 billion in dollar terms (50 billion in Euros).

I will end up with pointing out two rather interesting articles.  First is The Atlantic listing the 26 best cities for business, life, and innovation.  Here is the top 5:

1. New York
2. Toronto
3. San Francisco
4. Stockholm
5. Sydney

The Daily Caller is reporting that Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey has introduced a balanced budget proposal that should balance the budget by 2020.  Hopefully the CBO looks it over.  My guess is that it relies on overly optimistic numbers and assumes no economic downturn or interest rate hikes on bonds between now and then.  Prove me wrong Pat, prove me wrong.

Update- Jim Rogers announcing in Reuters he may follow Bill Gross's lead and short U.S. Treasuries soon:
Rogers said he expects the U.S. dollar to rally when the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary measure ends in June.
"I'm not short bonds yet but I plan to short bonds - maybe this afternoon if I get around to it," Rogers told Reuters Insider television.

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